Friday, January 13, 2012

I'm not lying

Ok, I haven't posted since going long EDC on Monday the 9th. That trade did work nicely the following day. I parted ways with EDC on Wednesday because I was a little bit frustrated that there was no follow through after we broke out of what I saw as a little triangle pattern. Looking back I am not surprised that it didn't go bonkers to the upside because we still were up against stiff resistance up around the 40 dollar level and we were over extended to the upside on the 15 min and hourly charts. I went long TMF which is 3X TLT long bond ETF on Wednesday and then ditched it yesterday intra day because I just wasn't feeling the love and felt like maybe I was just "hunting" for a trade any trade. Of course that trade would have paid off today if I had held on, I was just allowing myself to be discouraged by this magical melting up market. Fortunately I did short the gold miners at the close yesterday because they were even more of a no brainer this time than the last time I shorted them since they faked out bulls at the open yesterday getting above 55 then retreating at the end of the day. 55 is stiff price resistance along with the 50 day moving average which is trending down sharply and we have my mentor Corey Rosenbloom's classic 3 push pattern occurring on the 60 min chart as price made 3 new highs with lower momentum highs each time. This trade is going well so far so we'll see what happens there. There is a financial radio show here with a host who I respect who says that markets tend to reverse directions on long weekends and he pretty much has been right. One good example was the long July 4th weekend in 2010 when we bottomed after the flash crash, you could also see all of the other long weekends ever since for further proof. I don't trade on this kind of stock almanac garbage but it does make me feel better since I am bearish right now. The title of the post is my feeling defensive because I know it looks like I am trying to show I timed things just right in hindsight. I don't need to defend myself though, this is just my trading diary and I'm not the kind of guy who would try to make myself look smart on my site while lying to myself. I think that would be kind of pointless, its not like I am depending on this blog for income or something anyway. Have a relaxing weekend.  

No comments:

Post a Comment