Price is the most important thing. There is no need to make things much more complicated than that. This includes not even listening to financial news or watching CNBC. Just watch price and look at the charts. They reveal all you need to know. And of course, don't trade based on what you find here, if you don't know how to trade then learn how; this blog is not intended to provide financial advice to anyone who might happen to read it.
Sunday, January 1, 2012
Gold miners
I am long the gold miners right now. GDX is the etf to watch. We undercut an important low but momentum indicates less selling strength on the undercut. We broke 52 but on decreased momentum so I believe We will rally for a short time. One must remember that this market loves to kill people who sell new lows and buy new highs. There must be a computer out there now that is programmed to do the opposite of what rookie traders think they should do. That's ok because the human mind will always kick the **** out of a computer. I anticipate weakness on Tuesdays open so I think this position will look weak initially, I would only buy more on weakness at this point. Gold and silver look poised to rally. They both are shot to **** but that doesn't mean there wont be rallies in a greater downtrend. As for the year ahead? I have no clue, I can only assume more volatility because governments and central banks will continue to pump money in but markets wont buy it. They need to just go ahead and say they are going to literally start dropping 100's out of helicopters. Then oil and gold will explode. I think Bill Gross was off by about a year; Hell I went contrarian on him in 2011 and it paid off, but I do believe the inflationistas will finally be given their due sometime in 2012. I truly believe US treasuries will put in an all time high this year. I worry about what that means for the US though. I bet there will be lots of fireworks this year; best to you all.
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