Sit on thy hands, child

I got out of ERX Friday intraday and honestly I feel quite stupid for it. I just get very uncomfortable buying anything in a market this over extended to the upside. ERX looked a little troubled intraday and so I jumped ship. After looking at some charts after the close, I had to take a position in NUGT, the 3X GDX ETF. So I sold ERX because I was uncomfortable going long and then I turned around and went long! Oh well, wasn't the first time, won't be the last. At least it was a winning trade. This market is insane right now, the NDX large cap tech closed above last years highs now. As far as I can tell we have open air on the charts now for a good while. We are now possibly going to test some year 2000 levels after the parabolic blow off top. I have to think the market has been targeting the all time highs ever since March 2009. This sucker has just been relentless. I don't know what the futures are doing tonight, I don't usually look at them because I can't buy or sell an ETF right now anyways. I'm kind of curious to see whether we follow through to the upside now on the NDX or whether we drop back below support. Dropping back below probably wouldn't be good at this juncture but we'll just have to see. I would not buy the NDX, emerging markets, COMPQ, DJIA, or SPX up here but for all I know the shenanigans will continue, so I don't mind being long a sector that hasn't gone ape-s*** yet like energy or gold miners. Im out.  

Deja vu

I can't help but think back to September 2010 when I look at the charts of the US indices. Back then I was a non believer. Well today I closed my DUST position since GDX looks to be holding 53 pretty well and went long ERX. Alot of stocks and ETFs are breaking out and I hate to chase such moves. XLE, which this ETF tracks 3X has not gone bonkers to the upside yet so I feel more comfortable taking a position in it. If XLE takes out 72.50 it is probably lights out for the bears on this one. We may see the mother of all short covering rallies. I think such a move would imply that we will also be feeling more pain at the pump soon enough. Better make good returns in the market; it's the only way your money will keep up with our supposedly non-existent inflation.

I'm not lying

Ok, I haven't posted since going long EDC on Monday the 9th. That trade did work nicely the following day. I parted ways with EDC on Wednesday because I was a little bit frustrated that there was no follow through after we broke out of what I saw as a little triangle pattern. Looking back I am not surprised that it didn't go bonkers to the upside because we still were up against stiff resistance up around the 40 dollar level and we were over extended to the upside on the 15 min and hourly charts. I went long TMF which is 3X TLT long bond ETF on Wednesday and then ditched it yesterday intra day because I just wasn't feeling the love and felt like maybe I was just "hunting" for a trade any trade. Of course that trade would have paid off today if I had held on, I was just allowing myself to be discouraged by this magical melting up market. Fortunately I did short the gold miners at the close yesterday because they were even more of a no brainer this time than the last time I shorted them since they faked out bulls at the open yesterday getting above 55 then retreating at the end of the day. 55 is stiff price resistance along with the 50 day moving average which is trending down sharply and we have my mentor Corey Rosenbloom's classic 3 push pattern occurring on the 60 min chart as price made 3 new highs with lower momentum highs each time. This trade is going well so far so we'll see what happens there. There is a financial radio show here with a host who I respect who says that markets tend to reverse directions on long weekends and he pretty much has been right. One good example was the long July 4th weekend in 2010 when we bottomed after the flash crash, you could also see all of the other long weekends ever since for further proof. I don't trade on this kind of stock almanac garbage but it does make me feel better since I am bearish right now. The title of the post is my feeling defensive because I know it looks like I am trying to show I timed things just right in hindsight. I don't need to defend myself though, this is just my trading diary and I'm not the kind of guy who would try to make myself look smart on my site while lying to myself. I think that would be kind of pointless, its not like I am depending on this blog for income or something anyway. Have a relaxing weekend.  

I'm a flip flopper

Well, I bailed on DUST now. With bulls and bears locked in a battle between 53 and 54 on the GDX I decided there wasn't enough clarity especially after what I would consider a positive day in the markets today. I am now long emerging markets via EDC because I think they will move the furthest and fastest to the upside if we get going here. The EEM is in a nice little triangle with what I believe to be about a four dollar upside potential if we break to the upside. The dollar looks very over extended here so I did not want to be shorting anything gold related. I think the US markets look poised to reach last year's highs at which point I would just have to take a wait and see approach along with the other 99% of the trading world that doesn't know what the insiders are going to do next. I think if we reach those levels the VIX could be diverging quite dangerously as I think it already kind of is. Like Eric the midget from Howard Stern says: "Bye for now".

Well I'll be damned.

I was right for probably the first time in the history of this blog so that must make me an expert! Just kidding, I have been right before but I just like to poke fun at myself. I dumped the NUGT ETF on Wednesday because I came to realize that it was up against some pretty stiff resistance and the over sold condition had been relieved. I now am short the gold miners via DUST because it is kind of a no brainer based on what I look at on the daily and weekly charts and to add further credence the intraday charts look set up for lower prices on GDX as well. I may be wrong on my prediction in the short term as usual but I don't think there is much risk of an enormous gap up in GDX on Monday; we shall see. I may end up changing my mind on my little new years long bond call. I just don't see a huge run up a la 2010 this year in the market and if the market doesn't have a big rally this year then it stands to reason that the long bond could continue its magnificent 30 year uptrend. Mark my words though; this will end and when it does we are in for a whole heap of trouble. 2008 will seem like a fairytale in comparison. Its interesting to me how the weekly charts are aligned for bullish action right now in the US indices and sectors. It has taken them awhile to reach this point and it seems to me it is now or never for the US stock market. We do have earnings coming up and as usual they should be stellar; let's just see how the market reacts though, you never know. I also can't help but notice the worlds most powerful stock BIDU (AAPL being the second) looks terrible right now. If the Chinese central bank doesn't step in soon this could mark the end of the 15 fold  increase from the '09 lows. That wouldn't be good for this faux-bull market either. As that pinko commie Keith Olbermann says: Good night and good luck.     

Gold miners

I am long the gold miners right now. GDX is the etf to watch. We undercut an important low but momentum indicates less selling strength on the undercut. We broke 52 but on decreased momentum so I believe We will rally for a short time. One must remember that this market loves to kill people who sell new lows and buy new highs. There must be a computer out there now that is programmed to do the opposite of what rookie traders think they should do. That's ok because the human mind will always kick the **** out of a computer. I anticipate weakness on Tuesdays open so I think this position will look weak initially, I would only buy more on weakness at this point. Gold and silver look poised to rally. They both are shot to **** but that doesn't mean there wont be rallies in a greater downtrend. As for the year ahead? I have no clue, I can only assume more volatility because governments and central banks will continue to pump money in but markets wont buy it. They need to just go ahead and say they are going to literally start dropping 100's out of helicopters. Then oil and gold will explode. I think Bill Gross was off by about a year; Hell I went contrarian on him in 2011 and it paid off, but I do believe the inflationistas will finally be given their due sometime in 2012. I truly believe US treasuries will put in an all time high this year. I worry about what that means for the US though. I bet there will be lots of fireworks this year; best to you all.

Another week

Position: EDZ

This market is too extended to the upside. I am picking on emerging markets (Again) because they continue to lag. What does that say about the broader market? Not good; in a real bull I think emerging markets would lead, not the DOW for pete's sake. Inexplicably, we still have commercial real estate out performing as usual. I hate to inject my bias here but I have to think the fed is buying this shit up. That is the only explanation. This isn't me going full bearish-just playing for up to ten percent downside if I'm lucky. Keep in mind that is by utilizing a triple leveraged ETF. To me the weekly's show nothing, the daily's are overbought and the intradays are ridiculously overbought. I don't pay attention to news or seasonal bias info. Supposedly we should be rallying here; to me thats like saying we had a good crop last year so a good crop is expected this year. Whatever.