Position: IYR
Well, another case of being off by a day or two on the timing. I felt uncomfortable being short EEM seeing the oscillator flashing the warning signs but I went ahead and re-shorted based strictly on the new price low and the break below an important price level at 37. I still believe I shouldn't have covered my short based strictly on trying to tell the future using the oscillator, but I did screw up by going short again with the oscillator flashing such warning signals. If I had been disciplined I would not have covered Friday but I would have covered this morning after we gapped above a previous days high. I can even see a similar set up occurred on the Friday after thanksgiving with new price lows along with the oscillator flashing warning signals to at least not initiate new short positions. I am back into the commercial real estate ETF now; non-leveraged of course because my pride was a bit wounded after having my head handed to me in a paper sack this morning. This ETF looks better than the indices so I am trying to catch a ride on the strongest horse. Well other than the retail ETF which looks even better but I don't usually trade that ETF much. I wish I had held onto DRN now but the past is the past and I did not think it was going to rally if the market was going to roll over. Lesson learned- pay attention to the momentum oscillator. Don't initiate new shorts when it indicates momentum drying up. OK to hold a short until price forces me to cover; however this will inevitably lead to giving back some profits. On the other hand one could lock in a gain prematurely and watch prices continue to travel in the anticipated direction for another day or two thus leaving money on the table. It is a win some lose some situation however you choose to play it.
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